Latest statistics: seminarians down in the USA and the world, priests worldwide in decline, catastrophic decline in women religious Will vocations survive the new Bergoglian priestly formation document?

I. World Statistics 

Last month, the Vatican website published a report on the Pontifical Yearbook 2016 and Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae 2015, with a detailed summary of the statistics contained in the latter. Compared to the Vatican's summaries of the information in the Annuarium Statisticum published in previous years (see this for 2014, published in 2016; read here for 2013, published in 2015), last month's summary has much more detail, and for this we are very grateful.

The summary notes that "In 2015 there is decline in the number of priests from the previous year, thus reversing the upward trend that characterized the years from 2000 to 2014." To be exact, there were 415,656 priests in 2015, compared to 415,792 in 2014. (Looking into reports from previous years we find that there were 405,178 priests in 2000 -- when the upward trend began again -- 406,411 in 2005, 408,024 in 2007, 412,236 in 2010, and 414,313 in 2012.) Tellingly the decline from 2014 to 2015, while slight, is attributed to the decrease in the number of priests in Europe (less 2,502) outweighing the increases in the rest of the world (up by 2,366). Although the Vatican report does not mention it, it is no secret that very large numbers of European and North American clergy are in the age range of late 70's to 90's, which explains why the official statistics for priests in Europe and North America have little to do with the actual (and much reduced) number of priests available for, or capable of, pastoral duties on the ground. As these priests -- the last of those ordained in the period between 1945 and 1965 --continue to die off in even greater numbers due to illness and extreme old age within the next decade or so, we expect that the negative effect on worldwide priesthood numbers will become even more pronounced. (According to the summary, priests in Europe account for 43% of priests worldwide.)

As for major seminarians, the downward trend is confirmed: there are "in 2015 there was a total of 116,843 major seminarians, up (sic) from 116,939 in 2014; 118,251 in 2013; 120,051 in 2012; 120,616 in 2011 and 118,990 in 2010". We already noted the beginnings of this decline in a post last year. This trend towards decline seems set to continue, with the number of major seminarians now declining continuously in Europe, "in all areas of America" (which would include Latin America), in the Middle East, and in South East Asia, where, it is noted, "the initial growth ended in 2012 (+ 4.5% compared to 2010), and was followed by a marked decline which brought the number of major seminarians in 2015 at a level 1.6% less than the maximum of 2012". The same phenomenon is noted regarding Oceania: "the highest figure was recorded in 2012, followed by continuous decline – the number of seminarians in 2015 was 6.9% lower than in 2012". Only Africa is bucking the trend with an increase of 7.7% for major seminarians between 2010 and 2015.

For the record, the Centurio blog published a short study in 2014 which already forecast that there will be 323,000 priests worldwide by 2050, based on the trends of 2012 (when there were 414,313 priests) continuing. 

Stripping a city of its churches: the greater act of iconoclasm that is "Making All Things New"

In recent weeks much attention has been paid to the unexpected removal of most of the icons that had adorned Christ the Saviour Church in Manhattan since 2005. Our friends over at 1 Peter 5 have a good rundown of the situation (Naked in New York: The Unceremonious Stripping of Our Saviour), which has been denounced by many Catholics as an outburst of iconoclasm. What is certain is that whatever the current pastor of the parish is up to, it is not merely the integral restoration of the church to its pre-Conciliar or a more "Roman" look: otherwise he will also have to remove the "ad populum" table-altar. No one seriously expects the same man who squelched his own parish's Traditional Latin Mass to take that step.


What is happening in Christ the Saviour, however, seems to be a small but fitting symbol for what is arguably a greater act of iconoclasm, broadly understood: the closure of numerous churches in the "capital of the world" and its environs. Today (August 1) is the day when "Making All Things New" takes effect in the Archdiocese of New York -- the latest and largest wave so far of parish closures and mergers in that Archdiocese. Two decrees (November 2, 2014 and May 8, 2015) announced that a total of 141 parishes (originally 143) out of 368 were to be merged into 68 new parishes. While some of the churches deprived of parish status are to remain open for regular Masses, a total of 39 churches (thirteen of them in Manhattan, including the only two of the 39 whose parishioners are currently appealing their churches' closure before the Vatican) will be effectively closed -- or, as the Archdiocese euphemistically puts it,  they will become "church(es) which may be used on special occasions, (but) Masses and sacraments will no longer be celebrated on a regular basis." Of course, few actually believe that they will be kept standing for long. More ominously, "Making All Things New" foresees "evaluations" of every parish in the Archdiocese every two years, which means that more parish closures can be expected before long.

From the purely artistic and architectural point of view many of the churches are not significant, but some are real gems of the city, such as St. Stephen / Our Lady of the Scapular which is not only one of the largest Catholic churches in New York City but is remarkable for its frescoes (by Constantine Brumidi) and its copious amounts of stained glass. 

St. Stephen / Our Lady of the Scapular. Closed today. Source.