Rorate Caeli

Notes: 1. It is unlikely that the Conclave will reach full three days without a conclusive vote. (Mar. 9, 2013). 
2. If the first ballot in the morning or in the afternoon is conclusive, the Sistine Chapel chimney will signal the election before the foreseen "watching time".

54 comments:

Alan Aversa said...

Is the Missa pro eligendo Romano Pontifice private?

New Catholic said...

No, this particular one is public, the main celebrant and homilist being the Dean of the College.

der Anfaenger said...

"it is unlikely that the Conclave will reach full three days without a conclusive vote."

Pardon my naivete, but why?

New Catholic said...

First, based on the patterns of the past 130 years. Also, based on the fact that an "overwhelming majority" of Cardinals (words of Fr. Lombardi) voted for the anticipation of the conclave from the 15th to the 12th, which indicates that there probably already are some relatively large voting blocks at work. Three full days means 13 votes, that is quite a lot...

backtothefuture said...

I wasn't really living the good christian life in 2005, so I didn't pay attention like now. Praying for God's will,but still a little nervous and pulling for cardinal Burke.

Chris Lauer said...

Thank you ... this calendar is great ... but what I don't understand is how they can have a fixed chimney watch time after two rounds of ballots...

In the morning for instance, what if the first of the two ballots is successful in producing a pope? Do the the cardinals wait until 12 Noon before sending up the white smoke?

AS said...

Is this Roman time? Which, after we enter Daylight Savings Time, is how far ahead from EDT?

priceless said...

So, the old pope retired on Ash Wednesday & the new pope will be elected on the Ides of March?

Roberto Hope said...

"indicates that there probably already are some relatively large voting blocks at work"

¿Is not the Holy Spirit, but the pre-arranged voting blocks who decide who the next pope will be?

Looks a lot like Mexican elections

east said...

If an Eastern Catholic is elected Pope, would he celebrate his rite in public on a regular basis?

Matt said...

I just saw this.

Wuerl (reported by ABC News) told La Stampa, "The conclave will not be short." Interesting tidbit.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/conclave-political-drama-unfolding-vatican-city/story?id=18679522

Inquisitor said...

"it is unlikely that the Conclave will reach full three days without a conclusive vote."

Pardon my naivete, but why?


Although, the conclave could go on indefinitely, two to three days is a safe bet based upon the historical trend. The last four conclaves have all been 1-3 days in duration. The last time a conclave was longer than than 4 full days was 1958(which elected Pope John XXIII. The unusual length of that conclave is often attributed to the fact that there was was no clear favorite to win leading into the 1958 Conclave).

Here is a list of all of the Papal conclaves in the last two hundred years along with their days of duration and for most of them the number of ballots cast.

2005 (Apr 18-19) (2 days) After 4 ballots
1978 (Oct 14-16) (3 days) 8 ballots
1978 (Aug 25-26) (2 days) 4 ballots
1963 (Jun 19-21)(3 days) 6 ballots
1958 (Oct 25-28)(4 days) 11 ballots
1939 (Mar 1-2)(2 days) 3 ballots
1922 (Feb 2-6 1922)(5 days) 14 ballots
1914 (Aug 31-Sep 3) (4 days) 10 ballots
1903 (Jul 31-Aug 4)(5 days) 7 ballots
1878 (Feb 18-20) (3 days) 3 ballots
1846 (Jun 14-16) (3 days) 4 ballots
1830-31 (Dec 14-Feb 2)(50 days) 83 ballots
1829
1823 (Sep 2-28)(26 days)
1799-1800 (Nov 30, 1799- Mar 14, 1800) (105 days)

As you can see the historical average of papal conclaves in the past 200 years is about 2-3 days. In the 19th century papal elections could be quite drawn out owing to the political climate of the time and certain obsolete elements such as the Holy Roman/Austrian Emperor using their veto power against the election of one of the few available compromise candidates. The veto power of secular leaders was abolished by St. pope Pius X after his election in the 1903 conclave.

Benedict Carter said...

Wuerl's comment was interesting, yes. I reckon there may be two or even three blocs forming: Traditionalist-"conservative"; Liberal-progressive and Curial. Maybe there are splits on regional lines too.

Therefore there are no front-runners and they haven't a clue who will emerge as Pope.

I think this is a good thing: we may well get someone who no-one has ever heard of, and such a one could be our man.

God uses the insignificant and the hidden, bringing them forth to splendour to revitalise His Church. This is true with the Saints, with the innocents who were favoured by seeing Our Lady at La Salette, Lourdes, Fatima.

Let us pray that now is also such a moment.

Nathan said...

Benedict Carter, I'd caution against reading the conclave with an overly political paradigm. Certainly, there is a human element, as well as the action of the Holy Spirit, but to view it in the terms of warring blocs is to take things a bit far afield. Consider, there are not different "parties" of cardinals, nor do they have different platforms, this makes the conclave fundamentally different from a political election where such differences define the election. Further, most of the cardinals were appointed by Benedict, which, even on a merely human understanding of the conclave, precludes the sharp divisions we see in our political processes. That all is not to say there are not different views of what challenges face the Church, or of which man might be best able to lead the Church, there certainly are, and these divisions do lead to a certain groupings of cardinals, but in a very informal and loose manner, which can be seen in how quickly the cardinals typically (in modern times) have come to at least two/thirds agreement. All of this makes, in my opinion, alien terms imported into the Church (conservative, progressive) unhelpful. Remember such terms derive from the political struggles following the French Revolution, an event the Church predates, temporally, by 17 centuries and ,in the mind of God, predates from all eternity.

AS, the times are Rome time which is 7 hrs off from EST.

God Bless.

Benedict Carter said...

Sorry to post off topic.

Anyone know of any Traditionalist Android apps? Latin prayers, the "Extraordinary Form" calendar, etc?

New Catholic said...

AS: during this week, with EDT and no Summer time in Europe, there is a difference of 5 hours. In the calendar, you can see the current day as a yellow column and the current minute as a red line that slowly moves downwards.

Best regards,

NC

Benedict Carter said...

Nathan said " ... there are not different "parties" of cardinals, nor do they have different platforms ...".

I beg to disagree strongly.

"Cardinal against Cardinal, Bishop against Bishop". Our Lady's words, not mine. Michael Voris, on a trip to the Philippines last week, interviewed, he reported, one Bishop who confirmed to him that there were very serious splits among that country's Bishops, and you see this in country after country.

What else is the problem in the Curia other than a spiritual and doctrinal crisis playing itself out in political terms?

As Fulton Sheen said forty-five years ago, "The temptation of the Church in the next one hundred years will be to replace theology with politics, and we see the beginnings of it now".

So to talk in political terms of this particular body of men, the highest clerics of a Church that has tossed spiritual means out of the window, is only to discuss the matter on their own level.

Sure, the Holy Ghost can do something for us but I wouldn't set any store by the fact that the previous Pope appointed many of these men: many of his appointments have already proved themselves to be the frankly atrocious choices of a liberal Pope.

Which is what he was (albeit one with a somewhat troubled conscience).

Peter John said...

Benedict Carter,

iPieta. It has traditional/novus ordo calendars and readings for each. Can purchase ECF's, Councils, Writings of the Saints ... as well. It is very good.

Cathy said...

Most of the articles I have read mention divisions amongst the Cardinals with no clear frontrunner for Pope. Therefore, it seems very unlikely that these same Cardinals will iron out their differences and elect a Pope in three days.
Prepare for a long conclave seems to be the word on the street.


http://ncronline.org/blogs/all-things-catholic/conclave-2013-it-s-governance-stupid-who-s-governor

Prof. Basto said...

Interesting to note that, according to the statistics above, in the 19th century the Cardinals voted once, sometimes twice a day.

The current rules provide for one ballot in the opening day, and thereafter, except for the days when there is no voting (days of reflection and prayer), each full day of Conclave has four ballots, two in the morning session, two in the afternoon session.

So after the opening day plus three full days of conclave you have 13 ballots. Only once since the beggining of the 20th Century have Conclaves lasted more than 13 rounds of voting: in 1922, when Cardinal Ambrogio Damiano Achille Ratti became Pope Pius XI in the fourteenth ballot.

The 1922 Conclave was said to be divided between two favourite papabili: on one side Rafael Merry del Val, secretary of the Holy Office under Benedict XV and Secretary of State under St. Pius X; and on the other side Pietro Gasparri, Secretary of State under Benedict XVI (replacing Cardinal Ferrata, who died shortly after being appointed), president of the Comission that drafted the 1917 Code of Canon Law, and President of the Comission for the interpretation of the new Code. In the end, neither Cardinal was elected, and Achille Ratti emerged as the compromise candidate capable of reaching the 2/3 majority. Pietro Gasparri was retained as Secretary of State until 1930, and Merry del Val was retained as Secretary of the Holy Office until his death, also in 1930. Thereafter Pius XI appointed Eugenio Pacelli as Secretary of State and Donato Raffaele Sbarretti Tazza as Secretary of the Holy Office.

If only we were back in 1922 when so many good talents were frontrunners...

Matthew Rose said...

east,

It is hard to say what Rite an Eastern Catholic elected Pontiff would regularly offer in public. By becoming the Bishop of Rome, he becomes Latin Rite; the See of Rome is a Latin See, and thus his usual Rite would be the Roman Rite. However, because he is Pope and has Universal Jurisdiction, etc., he may offer whatever Rite he chooses. So it depends upon the man.

Prof. Basto said...

For those who like to interpret everything as an omen, Cardinal Scherer today celebrated Mass in his Roman parish church of St. Andrea al Quirinale, and he accidentally let the Blessed Sacrament fall to the ground.

O Globo Online, the website of the top Rio de Janeiro newspaper, reports the Mass of Card. Odilo Scherer as its top frontpage story, in full hype about the possibility of a Brazilian Prelate mounting the Chair of St. Peter. However, they also give prominence to the fact that a Host fell to the ground.

The title of the story is "Dom Odilo Scherer celebrates mass in Rome and asks the faithful to 'trust the Church'", and the subtitle is "During the celebration, Cardinal let a Host fall".

Source: http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/dom-odilo-celebra-missa-em-roma-pede-que-fieis-confiem-na-igreja-7796812

Bizlep said...

I wouldn’t bet in a short Conclave because if the Holy Ghost inspired Benedict XVI to resign in what will be known in the future as a great Historical happening... a surprise is certainly looming on its way. All things must be looked upon and read from God's perspective, according to our Faith.
And Divine surprises take long to bake on wordily prone minds, among media fuzziness and gossip...at least on the very beginnings! - Time will be needed to let this 'dust' settle down and open the Cardinal minds to more supernatural wisdom.

Alan Aversa said...

@AS: The times on the calendar above are GMT+1 (Rome) and Eastern is now EST (GMT-5). 1-(-5)=6 hour lag behind Rome.

Prof. Basto said...

Just to complete my last post on this thread...

The Mass in Sant'Andrea al Quirinale by the Brazilian candidate to the See of Peter also included a violation of the Ceremonial of Bishops, item 61, if I'm not mistaken, as His Eminence can be seen wearing his pectoral Cross not under the Chasuble, but over it.

The cord can be seen over the chasuble in this photo: http://g1.globo.com/mundo/renuncia-sucessao-papa-bento-xvi/noticia/2013/03/dom-odilo-reza-missa-em-roma-ha-dois-dias-de-inicio-do-conclave.html

Peter said...

Prof. Basto, they almost all do that. Cardinal Bertone had his pectoral cross and cord outside his chasuble at the Mass he celebrated in St Peter's for the Order of Malta a couple of days before Benedict XVI announced his abdication.

Ora et Labora said...

Prof. Basto,

Thanks for the latest news links you provided in regards to Cardinal Scherer, but aside from all of that I don't think I would like to see Scherer as Pope.

The truth is that the Brazilian Cardinal is in my list of the least desirable candidates for the papacy.

Athelstane said...

Hello Benedict,

I second the recommendation for iPieta - one of the most valuable apps I have ever bought. Not only does it have the full EF and OF calendars, with feast days and readings, it also has many other valuable features, such as the full Douay-Rheims, Clementine Vulgate; a collection of the most common prayers and devotions; Butler's Lives; and a sizable collection of various works, including the Summa, papal encyclicals, catechism of St. Pius X, Baltimore Catechisms 1,2 , and 3...the list goes on and on. The only other thing I could wish for is the Roman Missal, or at least collects for the day. Perhaps that will be in a future update.

Available for both iPhone and Droid for $2.99 - a great value for the price. There's no other Catholic app that even comes close.

http://www.ipieta.com/

Ora et Labora said...

I think Peter is right check out these pictures:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/on-faith/cardinals-meet-at-the-vatican


Mary Help of Christians pray for us!!!

Lynda said...

No paten? I hope it was consumed without delay. Terrible.

east said...

Matthew Rose said...
east,

It is hard to say what Rite an Eastern Catholic elected Pontiff would regularly offer in public. By becoming the Bishop of Rome, he becomes Latin Rite; the See of Rome is a Latin See, and thus his usual Rite would be the Roman Rite. However, because he is Pope and has Universal Jurisdiction, etc., he may offer whatever Rite he chooses. So it depends upon the man."

Thanks. An Eastern Catholic pope might be what we need, kind of like John Paul II was perfect for going against communism. An Eastern Catholic from a place that's almost all muslim might be the best for the church going against islam.

Peter said...

Thanks for the link, Ora et Labora. So Rodriguez and Turkson are cross-outside-chasuble men.

Another little ideological indicator, I think, is the hooking of the cross chain into a cassock button. Burke does it, Benedict XVI did it... few others do.

Cluny said...

\\ east said...
If an Eastern Catholic is elected Pope, would he celebrate his rite in public on a regular basis?\\

The secular press would probably trumpet, "Non-Catholic Elected Pope!"

This, however, is the theme of the novel and movie THE SHOES OF THE FISHERMAN.

backtothefuture said...

ewtn.com has a live feed if anybody wants to watch online

Alan Aversa said...

Assuming they do chose a pope, how soon after the "Sistine Chimney Watch" does the "Habemus Papam" occur?

thanks

backtothefuture said...

Alan, i've read about 50 min after. The pope will first spend some time in adoration before stepping out into the loggia

Jacob said...

I am not familiar with any of the cardinals that would be good for tradition, other than Burke. Could someone list a couple of names of who would be good choices. I am afraid, when they announce the new Pope, I won't know if he is tradition friendly. Thanks

justin said...

@Jacob:

Off the top of my head would probably be Cards. Scola, Bagnasco, Piacenza, Ranjith, Pell, Canizares-Llovera, Francis George, Barbarin, Caffara, Ouellet.

My preference would be Cards. Bagnasco, Piacenza, Oullet or Scola but I will love, honour and obey whoever the Sacred College elects.

Postulator said...

No, pope on the first ballot.

Alan Aversa said...

@Jacob: See Rorate Cœli's post The next pope and the Latin Mass.

I'm rooting for Card. Carlo Caffarra. See this posting for more info about him.

Tracey Rowland writes of Card. Caffarra:Caffarra was so strongly attacked in the press for defending Humanae Vitae he received a letter of support and encouragement from Sr. Lucia of Fatima. (When you start receiving support letters from someone who has private audiences with the Mother of God you know that you must be very high on the devil's hate list.)

Dr. Timothy J. Williams said...

Knowing the extreme disdain that most Eastern Rite Catholics have for the Novus Ordo (and it is shared by Eastern Rite clergy) I would be astonished if an Eastern-Rite Cardinal were elected Pope. And I would be even more astonished if he celebrated the Novus Ordo... EVER.

Prof. Basto said...

This hysteria here in Brazil is getting more and more bizarre. Now with a bet on a terrible Papal name:

"Brother of Dom Odilo [Cardinal Scherer] bets on Papal name that the Cardinal would choose: Paul".

"If that were the case [his brother's election], it's Paul", said Lotário Scherer.

Sources:

1)http://g1.globo.com/pr/oeste-sudoeste/noticia/2013/03/irmao-de-d-odilo-aposta-em-nome-de-papa-que-cardeal-escolheria-paulo.html

2) http://fratresinunum.com/2013/03/12/dom-odilo-que-segundo-familia-adotaria-o-nome-de-paulo-vii-teria-defendido-a-curia-em-discussao-acalorada/

May Mary Queen of the Apostles free us from a Brazilian Pope in the present terrible circumnstances of the Church in Brazil. And May She deliver us from the threat of a Paul VII.

Our Lady of the Good Counsel, come to our aid; ask Your Son to give us a worthy and holy Pope, for the restoration of Christiandom, for the restoration of the Sacred Tradition, for the restoration of the rigths of God!

Ora et Labora said...

I have been thinking that I would not mind if the Cardinals take their time selecting a pope. I would not want them hurrying up to elect just anyone because they are worried about Holy Week and Easter coming.

I mean, we have bishops and priests that can replace them during Holy Week and Easter if necessary.

That doesn't mean I want them to stay in there for weeks on end either is just that I hope they don't feel pressured and choose wisely.


Mary Help of Christians, pray for us!!!

theeast said...

Dr. Timothy J. Williams said...
Knowing the extreme disdain that most Eastern Rite Catholics have for the Novus Ordo (and it is shared by Eastern Rite clergy) I would be astonished if an Eastern-Rite Cardinal were elected Pope. And I would be even more astonished if he celebrated the Novus Ordo... EVER.

http://rorate-caeli.blogspot.com/2009/07/byzantine-look-at-novus-ordo.html

A Byzantine Look at the Novus Ordo

An interview with John Vernoski, a layman in the Byzantine Catholic Church who is a student of Liturgy and the webmaster of byzcath.org, which features The Byzantine Forum - a discussion group which is hosted there.

Q: What has been your experience of the Novus Ordo? Good or bad?

A: Both. At the Jesuit University I went to in the early 1980s I attended one “coffee table Mass”. One was enough. But the daily and Sunday Masses in the main chapel were quite edifying.

I’ve attended many lackluster Masses. [No surprise there – we Byzantines have lots of parishes with lackluster Liturgy, too.]

I’ve also attended some wonderful Masses – Masses that were well planned, well prayed, and well sung. I occasionally attend Novus Ordo Roman Catholic Masses in the Diocese of Arlington here in Virginia where I live. Yes, on Sunday they have the “four songs” but they are (in the nearby parish) well chosen to reflect either the readings or sometimes the saint of the day. Even better is that all the major parts of the Mass are sung (the Kyrie, the Gloria, the Sanctus, the Lord’s Prayer and the Lamb of God). Sometimes the chant is Gregorian and sometimes modern. Almost always very good.

Dr. Timothy J. Williams said...

"theeast" quotes a "student of liturgy" to demonstrate that Byzantine Catholics do not have disdain for the Novus Ordo? The only opinion that would count less than his would be that of a "professor of liturgy."

Bizlep said...

Hummm
I'm still thinking that this will be a long conclave because if God inspired Pope Benedict to leave the Petrine Ministry, making an act of Faith similar to those to which Abraham, Moses or the Virgin Mary were subjected, it is because something unusual is turning up. Probably not one of the single favorites will be elected. I would look on the Cardinals made so by Benedict XVI and of these, the ones in favor of Consecrating Russia as a priority. The Mother of God is probably tired of waiting and is now forwarding the Pope that will perform this Consecration together with the orthodox Bishops and mentioning "RUSSIA"… just see the sate of World affairs and take your conclusions under the light of Fatima.
A succession of happenings usually bear an intrinsic logic: extraordinary events are usually followed by extraordinary events... and the resignation of Pope Benedict is an EXTRA-ordinary event: it came from God... Why?

Bizlep said...

Hummm
I'm still thinking that this will be a long conclave because if God inspired Pope Benedict to leave the Petrine Ministry, making an act of Faith similar to those to which Abraham, Moses or the Virgin Mary were subjected, it is because something unusual is turning up. Probably not one of the single favorites will be elected. I would look on the Cardinals made so by Benedict XVI and of these, the ones in favor of Consecrating Russia as a priority. The Mother of God is probably tired of waiting and is now forwarding the Pope that will perform this Consecration together with the orthodox Bishops and mentioning "RUSSIA"… just see the sate of World affairs and take your conclusions under the light of Fatima.
A succession of happenings usually bear an intrinsic logic: extraordinary events are usually followed by extraordinary events... and the resignation of Pope Benedict is an EXTRA-ordinary event: it came from God... Why?

Tradiate said...

I know that some have 'adopted a cardinal'. Here are some more ideas our family came up with to help the election of a strong and holy pope.

1) Assistance at the Holy Sacrifice of the Mass
2) confession/communion
3) prayers to the Holy Ghost
4) the rosary
5) praying to the guardian angels of the Cardinals to remind them often and move their wills to elect the right person
6) prayers to St. Michael and Our Lady in order to drive the devils away from the conclave. We say the "August Queen of the heavens" prayer for this intention
7) and...fasting since Our Lord said some demons can only be driven out by prayer and fasting (Matt 17:21)


Ephesians 6:12
For our wrestling is not against flesh and blood; but against principalities and power, against the rulers of the world of this darkness, against the spirits of wickedness in the high places.

Cardinal Wuerl's Cobbler said...

Bizlep said: "A succession of happenings usually bear an intrinsic logic: extraordinary events are usually followed by extraordinary events..."

Indeed. And maybe the new Pope will then offer Mass in the extraordinary form!

Muv said...

Another suggestion when praying for your adopted Cardinal..

Say the St. Gertrude Prayer for the Holy Souls, which carries the promise that 1000 souls will be released on its recitation, and ask in particular for the release to Heaven of the souls of relatives, ancestors and friends of the Cardinal so they can intercede on his behalf that he should act on the promptings of the Holy Ghost.

Apologies if someone has already suggested this.

Cardinal Wuerl's Cobbler said...

...and our modernist local Ordinaries will become extra-Ordinaries (as in, out of our Dioceses)...pun intended.

Matt said...

Well, here we are. Day Two with a second round of balloting and no decision yet. It makes one anxious whom they may be narrowing in on.

Echoing Prof. Basto, "May Mary Queen of the Apostles free us from a Brazilian Pope in the present terrible circumstances of the Church in Brazil. And May She deliver us from the threat of a Paul VII."

Barbara said...

We have a Pope!

Matt said...

bizlp said, "I would look on the Cardinals made so by Benedict XVI and of these, the ones in favor of Consecrating Russia as a priority. "

This is an interesting view. How would this square with the fact Rome and Sister Lucia already said the consecration has already been fulfilled? What would cause Rome to suddenly brook the matter again?