Ultimately, only the Holy Spirit knows who the next Pope will be, and we must pretend that these predictions actually mean something. In reality, I believe we can only get a sense of how the Conclave is going by observing how long it lasts. If the Pope is elected today, it means the Cardinals were already in agreement on a name (though I don’t think that will happen—it’s not even certain they will vote today). If he is elected tomorrow, it means one of the strong candidates has managed to quickly build a consensus around his name. If the election comes on Friday, it means reaching an agreement around the leading names proved more difficult, and there’s a possibility of a surprise—a name no one expected. If no Pope is elected by Friday, things start to get complicated, and, in a way, more interesting. At that point, anything can happen.
Of course, events may prove me wrong, but I believe my forecast is fairly reasonable, and we may indeed see things unfold along the lines I’ve described.
Here in Rome, people are keeping their thoughts to themselves and preparing to live with whoever is chosen to be their Bishop. Rome has seen it all, and, as you can imagine, has had Popes of every kind. I believe the hope among many Roman faithful is for a Pope who will tend to the wounds of a divided Church that seems to have lost her way. Rome, too, needs a great spiritual renewal in the sense of tradition. Rome is a city of tradition, and the wave of revolutionary madness of recent decades has certainly disfigured it—but it has not extinguished the sacred fire that has always burned within it.
