I. World Statistics
Last month, the Vatican website
published a report on the Pontifical Yearbook 2016 and
Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae 2015, with a detailed summary of the statistics contained in the latter. Compared to the Vatican's summaries of the information in the
Annuarium Statisticum published in previous years (see
this for 2014, published in 2016; read
here for 2013, published in 2015), last month's summary has much more detail, and for this we are very grateful.
The summary notes that "In 2015 there is decline in the number of priests from the previous
year, thus reversing the upward trend that characterized the years from
2000 to 2014." To be exact, there were 415,656 priests in 2015, compared to 415,792 in 2014. (Looking into reports from previous years we find that there were 405,178 priests in 2000 -- when the upward trend began again -- 406,411 in 2005, 408,024 in 2007, 412,236 in 2010, and 414,313 in 2012.) Tellingly the decline from 2014 to 2015, while slight, is attributed to the decrease in the number of priests in Europe (less 2,502) outweighing the increases in the rest of the world (up by 2,366). Although the Vatican report does not mention it, it is no secret that very large numbers of European and North American clergy are in the age range of late 70's to 90's, which explains why the official statistics for priests in Europe and North America have little to do with the actual (and much reduced) number of priests available for, or capable of, pastoral duties on the ground. As these priests -- the last of those ordained in the period between 1945 and 1965 --continue to die off in even greater numbers due to illness and extreme old age within the next decade or so, we expect that the negative effect on worldwide priesthood numbers will become even more pronounced. (According to the summary, priests in Europe account for 43% of priests worldwide.)
As for major seminarians, the downward trend is confirmed: there are "in 2015 there was a total of 116,843 major seminarians, up (sic) from 116,939 in 2014; 118,251 in 2013; 120,051 in 2012; 120,616 in 2011 and 118,990 in 2010". We already noted the beginnings of this decline in
a post last year. This trend towards decline seems set to continue, with the number of major seminarians now declining continuously in Europe, "in all areas of America" (which would include Latin America), in the Middle East, and in South East Asia, where, it is noted, "the initial growth ended in 2012 (+ 4.5% compared to 2010), and was
followed by a marked decline which brought the number of major
seminarians in 2015 at a level 1.6% less than the maximum of 2012". The same phenomenon is noted regarding Oceania: "the highest figure was recorded in 2012, followed by continuous decline –
the number of seminarians in 2015 was 6.9% lower than in 2012". Only Africa is bucking the trend with an increase of 7.7% for major seminarians between 2010 and 2015.
For the record, the Centurio blog published
a short study in 2014 which already forecast that
there will be 323,000 priests worldwide by 2050, based on the trends of 2012
(when there were 414,313 priests) continuing.